Predicted seat counts
Predicted seats won — hover or click a point for detail
Click a constituency in the figure above.
Demographics
Click a constituency in the figure above.
Hex map of predicted winners
Westminster under proportional representation
Difference in seats between UNS and PS (and with PR)
Details for a particular constituency
Top fifty marginals
Information
Predictions all use Uniform National Swing (UNS) or Proportionate Swing (PS) from GE 2024 on new constituency boundaries. Proportionate Swing is only used for Conservatives and Labour in the PS model. Small parties always use UNS to prevent very large shifts, and this means numbers won't always add to one hundred for PS.
The dotted line is 325 seats (a pure majority). A working majority is closer to 320 because of the Speaker and Sinn Féin. Tactical voting shifts a proportion of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters to whichever of those parties did best in GE 2024. Tactical voting between Conservatives and Reform moves voters from the other party to whichever did best in GE 2024. Constituencies are weighted by 2024 absolute turnout. Northern Ireland and Chorley (the Speaker's seat) are excluded.
2024 vote share taken from Ralph Scott. Brexit vote estimates for new boundaries from Chris Hanretty. New boundaries hex map from Philip Brown and Alasdair Rae, Automatic Knowledge Ltd. Demographics are from the House of Commons Library and ONS — note Scotland only has an age profile.
All code produced by Ben Ansell. This is an updated version of the GE24 calculator based on GE2019 voting data. Articles about it: Tactical Coping and The Moment of Truth.
This page is static: the data and the whole swing model are loaded into your browser, so nothing is computed on a server.